Malaysia Today is hosting a running poll called 'Mock Elections'. Everyone, including supporters of the BN and the Opposition, should visit the poll and cast their votes. The system does not allow for two votes to be cast on the same day. So for those BN supporters who want to vote twice or three times a day, you either need a lot of machines or you have to keep coming back every other day.
As of now 5:55 pm, Saturday February 16, there have been a total of 5,043 votes cast. Of this number, 4,718 votes or 93.6% are for the Opposition while 325 or 6.4% are for the BN. I have been checking over the past two days. The proportion of votes is almost constant. The BN only gets 6.4% of the vote.
Granted that many of the visitors to MT are Opposition supporters but nevertheless 93.6% of all votes cast thus far in this Mock Elections are for the Opposition. What does this mean? It means that the vast majority of the educated, net-savvy citizens of the country are not for the BN this time around.
For example, I am a many times voter, member of UMNO and ex-Government man. This time around, for the first time, I will be voting for the Opposition. Do read on. As for the Mock Election being run here, since MT's readership encompasses all races and religions, it means that the BN is past its usefulness.
The BN can only count on the kampong folks, the small town dwellers and the poorly educated to give them their seats. This is why despite Khairy Jamaludin the S-I-L being a graduate of Oxford University he has to stand for elections in some backwater rural ditch in Negeri Sembilan or in a very very safe seat like Putrajaya with its 5,000 Gomen servant voters.
Despite Oxford, Khairy cannot stand in the urban constituencies with well-educated voters. Khairy needs voters like Cik Jah, Kobat and Lebai Omak to vote for him. Simple folks whose knowledge of things does not go beyond Datuk K, Siti Nurhaliza and 'Kisah diraba Tok Kun' - and not necessarily in that order.
Well, yesterday, I had another pow-wow with a high-ranking Gomen servant. He too will be voting for the Opposition this time. The following are some very pertinent information which has been gathered by the Gomen to size up their chances at this 12th General Elections. Opposition please take note. We still have 20 long days before we vote on the 8th of March.
Despite retaining the 2/3 majority, the General Elections in 1999 were considered a heavy loss for the BN. A post-mortem showed major erosion in support for the BN among six major groups of Malays :- i. the professionals, ii. youths, iii. Civil Servants (teachers, TNB & Telekom workers etc), iv. the agama people, v. students (who make up 'pengundi luar' who travel back to vote) and lastly, vi. the women.
In 1999, the non-Malays, particularly the Chinese, gave solid support for the BN. If not for Chinese voters in Bangsar and the surrounding areas, people like Shahrizat Jalil would actually have lost Lembah Pantai in KL. In the aftermath of the Anwar Ibrahim black-eye and the murderous anti-Chinese riots in Indonesia at that time, the Chinese were frightened into supporting the BN.
In 2004 there was a complete turnaround. This was the 'high hopes for Abdullah Badawi' factor. In 2004, with sound propaganda and careful handling (we were all deeply involved, we were the best), the BN managed to salvage strong support from almost all sectors. But the single biggest factor was the promise of positive change by Abdullah Badawi. What a chicken shit let down that has become.
Now the Gomen's reading for this 12th General Elections in 2008 has changed dramatically. Gomen surveys show that the professional groups (across all races) and the youths (all races including large numbers of Malay youths) are very unhappy with the Gomen. It is expected that, this time around, many of them will be voting for the Opposition for the first time.
The other group that has become very unhappy with Abdullah Badawi are the Civil Servants. This is a very large number, considering that there are almost 1 million Civil Servants, over 97% of whom are voting age Malays. It is projected that many voters in these categories will not be voting for the BN. There is more to this. There is a difference between 'voting for the Opposition' and 'not voting for the BN'.
There are three more important groups of voters who will not be voting for the BN. The non-Malays, particularly the Chinese and Indians, will be voting for the Opposition this time around. It is most likely that they will go to the polling booths and cast their votes for the Opposition. What is interesting is that the Chinese and Indians are predicted to vote for any Opposition candidate in their area, i.e. notwithstanding PAS, DAP, PKR, etc. They will vote and they will vote Opposition. They will not be staying at home on Polling Day.
Then there is a new group, very large and very influential. This is the pro-Dr Mahathir group. This group is very largely Malay (middle-aged, older-aged, private sector, Melayu korporat, ex-Civil Servants, etc.) and has great nostalgia for Dr Mahathir. They are well-versed with the total ineptitude of Abdullah Badawi. They also do not like the way Dr Mahathir has been ill-treated by Abdullah Badawi including the ongoing VK Lingam Inquiry which they see as trying to embarrass Dr Mahathir.
(Folks we are not debating their merits here but only looking at potential voting behaviour. So don't kill the messenger, please read what was told to me).
This pro-Dr Mahathir group may do two things. They may vote for the Opposition, provided the Opposition candidate is someone they like. Because of race and religion factors they may prefer PAS rather than DAP or PKR. Failing an acceptable Opposition candidate, they may just spoil the BN vote - as a sign of protest. Lastly, they may not go out to vote.
Take note: The chances of them spoiling their votes for BN or not going out to vote at all are greater than their chances of voting for the Opposition on Election Day. This means they are protest voters. It is not that they love the Opposition but they just don't like Badawi.
The BN can forget about winning them over. It is too late now for the BN. The Opposition must work hard to convince this class of voters to vote for them. It is really quite easy. No need for hugs and kisses but conciliatory statements by Opposition leaders towards Dr Mahathir may just do the trick. The idea is to win these people over. Anwar Ibrahim, Ronnie Liu and PAS please take note.
The third and last group is very interesting. These are the Government retirees and pensioners. There are hundreds of thousands of them. They are mostly Malay and very staunchly pro-Dr Mahathir and retired during the time of Dr Mahathir. These are again mostly Malay voters who feel proud that they were Civil Servants under Tun Dr Mahathir. They too will not be voting for the BN.
One retiree has said that he will not vote for the BN. If he cannot vote for PAS or another Malay opposition candidate, he will either spoil his vote or he will not vote at all.
Compared to 1999, this GE in 2008 will see major erosion in support for the BN but for different reasons and by different groups. This time around, the Chinese, the Indians, the Malay professionals, the Malay pro-Dr Mahathir group, the serving Malay Civil Servants, the retired Malay Civil Servants, the students and youths, are all showing dislike for the BN.
There are still 20 days left. The Opposition must focus their efforts very well. Be nice to Cik Jah and Lebai Omak too but they will be voting for Khairy Jamaludin in Rembau. We cant change that overnight.
Anda setuju?...
Aku juga tertarik dengan piliharaya kali ini, bagi aku apa yang menarik ialah untuk melihat kecederaan parah dan diusung keluar
ReplyDeletegelanggang beberapa orang pemain PAS dan PKR.
Bagi aku senang saja mencongak politik ini. Retorik kedua-dua mangkok hayun ini umpama masuk angin keluar asap.
Tarak apa-apa, nak berjaya kena berusaha, nak nak hidup kena makan. Politik bukan cerita katun bawaan PKR, PAS dan DAP.
Orang terima pencen ribu-ribu sebulan sembang sambil seronok-seronok Ok, tapi kalau nak cakap pasal masa depan negara, PAS PKR dan geng-geng rakan sepenjenayah dengannya eloklah
pergi mandi dan gosok gigi.
Well, it is indeed a good observation.
ReplyDeleteI am particularly impressed with the young generation who will make up a substantial number of votes in this coming 2008 GE.
It is true, Pak Leman, Mak Lijah, and those in felda settlement will continue to vote for the so called ruling government party, they are not merely interested to see how effective the government runs, whether the government involves in any corruption, any political leader taking monetary benefits from the government contract, they will vote just because the so call ruling party is giving them money to feed their mouth. That's about it.
those educated young professional will vote otherwise.
Very interesting observation. As you said, only citizens with Internet access (about 20% of the population) can look at alternative media. I've been watching Al-Jazeera lately on youtube and what amazes me is the how terrible the explanations given by our so-called leaders about what is happening in the country and they're not even answering any of the questions. Anyway, I wish I was in Malaysia right now so I could go vote. =) Looking forward to read what you'll write next.
ReplyDeleteKepada yg menyokong BN...sorrylah!Zaman korang dah berakhir.Korang kena kencing je lah dgn pemimpin BN.Rakyat telah membuktikan bahawa BN Pak Lah nie giler kuasa,harta dan perempuan.Amanah yg diterima dahulunya mereka sia-siakan.Lihat saja hari ini...5 negeri tuan-tuan,hilang hancur ditelah pembangkang.Apa barang BN? Kesian BN.Ada power tapi dah lemah.Tu lah...berubahlah dan bertaubatlah.Istilah pembangkang tidak ada erti buat BA.Sekarang BA sudah ada 5 negeri.Khairy Jamaluddin...sorrylah beb.Lu naik diwaktu BN termakan perangkap sendiri.Lu cakap lu budak nakal.Takpelah...nanti BA akan tolong displinkan lu.Ajar lu menjadi orang yg. amanah dan tulus dlm. berpolitik.Selagi kamu BN masih ada nyawa dan nafas,marilah bersatu memakmurkan Malaysia dgn. kebenaran dan keadilan.Bantulah rakyat semua bukannya bantu kroni dan poket sendiri.Masih blom terlambat beb!...taubatlah!
ReplyDeleteem..yes it is interesting n boombastik..whatever, i just want to pray for my malaysian, 'aman n makmur...may allah increase your love for the good spcially malaysiannnnnnnnnnnnnnn.......thank you allah!!!!!!!!!
ReplyDeleteBN hampir kalah pada peringkat persekutuan tapi kalah mengejut kat 5 buah negeri. Sungguh menarik sebab 2 perkara yang paling utama adalah
ReplyDelete1) BN perlu mengkaji kenapa ramai tidak memilih BN pada GE ke 12.
2) Peluang BA untuk membuktikan perjuangan mereka untuk rakyat adalah tulen dan bukannya untuk kroni-kroni mereka.
Di dlm mstar.com, Dr. M mengutuk pemerintahan Pak Lah dan mahu beliau bertanggungjawab atas kekalahan BN di 5 buah negeri serta menggesa Pak Lah meletak jawatan. Apa yang dikatakan oleh Dr. M memang betul sebab apa yang dapat kita lihat, rakyat sudah benci dan meluat kepada keletah Pak Lah dan Khairy. Tindakan yang paling releven sekarang adalah untuk Pak Lah meletak jawatan beliau. Ini penting bagi mengembalikan kepercayaan rakyat kepada UMNO dan BN umumnya. Namun kedegilan Pak Lah merupakan titik kehancuran BN dan UMNO pada GE akan dtg. Ini kerana pihak BA telah berjaya menguasai negeri paling penting iaitu Selangor dan sumber kewangan di negeri ini dapat menjana manifesto BA, sekiranya pihak BA dapat menggunakan peluang ini sebaik-baiknya. Dan jika mereka dapat mempertahankan kedudukan mereka di 5 buah negeri utk GE akan datang, tidak mustahil kesemua negeri di Semenanjung Malaysia akan ditawan oleh BA. Namun bagi Sabah dan Sarawak, senario politik di kedua-dua negeri ini amat berbeza dan akan terus menjadi penyumbang utama kepada jumlah undi untuk BN pada peringkat persekutuan seperti yang kita lihat pada GE 12 tahun ini. BN sebenarnya perlu berterimakasih kepada Sabah dan Sarawak kerana bilangan kawasan yang dipertandingkan amat banyak dan jika ingin menjatuhkan BN sepenuhnya, pihak BA perlu ada manifesto yang sesuai dengan senario politik di sini serta dapat menarik pengundi-pengundi dari kedua buah negeri ini untuk memangkah BA. Di Sarawak sebagai cthnya kelibat PAS dan PKR di sini tidak akan dapat menumbangkan BN tetap parti seperti DAP mungkin berkemampuan untuk mengalahkan BN secara total.
Jadi utk itu semua kita fikir-fikirkanlah kenapa BN masih dpt menjadi pemerintah.
Apa dah jadi memang terjadi. Keputusan menepati ramalan. Mengucap banyak2 dan rehat cuma sebentar. Pertamanya, muhasabah diri dulu dan ambil tindakan pembetulan.
ReplyDeleteKedah - baru belajar nak jadi kaya. P.Pinang - dah lama dan banyak kumpul tak sempat nak lari. Perak - dah lama sangat bersantai dan membantai. Selangor - dah rosak alat 'decoder' tu sbb tak faham pesanan. Yang lain tunggu 2013 atau awal lagi. Jangan bimbang.
Manusia boleh buka/tutup mulut:- jangan angkuh, banyak alasan, lupa diri, pembohong, fitnah, mengampu dan abaikan ugama.
Bagi yang baru ambil iktibar, jgn sampai jadi macam ini. Satu penggal saja, nanti samada kena sokong atau potong. Jgn jadi lanun darat.
Hello guys n girls..... BN are full of power..... BUT our useless prime minister ( sowie dude! ) is weak! how cn we trust BN anymore with the leader like that? u should realiza it la.. abdullah?? you should give ur prime minister title 2 somebody else.. najib... 4 example... he is 'powerer' than u la.. please la.. realize it la... how cn we be a develop country with this such of pemimpin? how can u guide us? we'll not be a develop country 4 ever n ever la like this... PKR???????? owh, god! wat's wrong wit Malaysians? PKR is chinese la!!!!!!!! come on!!!!!!! Malays?????????!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! where r u all? we can't give this Malaysia 2 chinese!!!!!!!!!! please!!!!!!! i'm begging 2 u all, Malays! don't vote 4 PKR!!!!!!! Chineses...(not all but most all) are selfish!!!!!!! they'll just think about their race... will they think of Malay? nah.. 4 what?? they've got the country... 4 what they want to help us? REALIZe it, la, MALAYS!!!!!!!!!!!!! we'll not give this country 2 Chineses.... at least vote 4 PAS and Keadilan, la... they're more 2 Malays... Thank u 4 reading this comments.. i hope u all will realiza it... Chow!
ReplyDeletesusah betul aku nak komen but.aku harap dengan pemerintahan pas dikedah..kadar maksiat dan jenayah berkurangan...
ReplyDeleteAssalamualaikum. Pilihanraya ke-12, memang mengejutkan...tapi kepada orang2 melayu, sedarkah kita apa kesilapan terbesar kita? Kita telah memberi peluang kepada dap untuk memerintah Pulau Pinang terutamanya, kesannya saya amat yakin yg melayu tidak akan 'dipandang' oleh cina2 penang yg sememangnya benci dengan orang2 melayu & bumiputera, saya bukan bercakap kosong tetapi jelas terbukti di atas tindak-tanduk yang mereka lakukan. kita orang melayu masih leka & tidur. sebelum ini pun Pulau Pinang di bawah ketua menteri, Koh Tsu Koon, kita dapat lihat dengan jelas bagaimana melayu ditindas dengan sesuka hati oleh cina2 yang berkuasa. Saudara-saudari, usahlah kita bercakap pasal parti2 Melayu pada waktu ini kerana pas dan umno, komposisinya adalah 100% melayu. Apa yang perlu diberi perhatian adalah kedudukan dan ketuanan MELAYU! Dalam suasana politik bumiputera yang berpecah-belah, sedarkah kita yang kaum cina telah mengambil kesempatan??!!! Mereka tidak mengundi bn apatah lagi pas, mereka beralih kepada dap, memang jelas!! mereka ni memang pembelot, tak sedar diuntung, penipu. Sandara-saudari, kita orang melayu tak kira pas atau umno, jika kita memerintah, kita bagi peluang dan hak yang sama rata kepada rakyat tidak kira bangsa kerana kita memang Islam, Islam menuntut berlaku adil kepada semua rakyat tidak kira bangsa atau agama, jika tidak, kita akan berdosa tetapi saudara-saudari pernah fikir yang cina tidak pernah dan tidak akan berfikiran macam tu!!!! Kerana apa yang penting bagi mereka adalah duit dan kekayaan!!!! Biar orang lain mati, kebulur, tak cukup makan, tertindas tak mengapa asalkan mereka kaya. Ini realiti!!!!!! Bukan fiksyen!!! Orang Melayu & bumiputera, bangkitlah! Bersatulah! kerana hanya itu sahaja yang akan dapat membantu kita. Sudah tentu kita tidak mahu tanah tumpah darah tercinta kita ini dirampas oleh si rakus-si rakus 'yahudi kedua' dunia ni!! Mereka tidak setia! contoh terbaik adalah pada kejatuhan ekonomi malaysia pada 1998, pelabur-pelabur cina malaysia yang melabur dalam malaysia lari melabur ke negara lain menyebabkan ekonomi negara bertambah teruk dan lembab!! pada pilihanraya ke-12, Lim Guan Eng meniup semangat perkauman kepada cina2 dan india tetapi kerajaan tidak membendung perkara ini, lihatlah apa yang terjadi. kita melayu mestilah bersatu, jgn terlalu memberi peluang kepada cina2 yang sememangnya tak kenang budi...Kita buat apa yang patut kita buat untuk menjatuhkan cina di bumi malaysia kesayangan kita ini.Fikir-fikirkanlah.....
ReplyDeleteakum. Dulu aku penyokong UMNO tapi skarang aku da sokong pembangkang sebab aku rasa tak ada keyakinan langsung dengan kepimpinan Pak Lah. Spt kata Tun Mahathir, Pak Lah lebih baiklah letak jawatan. Kalau tak GE akan datang BN akan terus hancur. Mereka plak jadi pembangkang. Bagi Khairy Jamaluddin, anda jangan banyak cakap sangat sebab orang tak suka. Jangan jadi macam beruk
ReplyDelete[...] hasil daripada pilihanraya 2008. Aku dah memang jangkakan pun keputusan PRU2008..Dah ada satu daripada artikel yang lepas yang menggambarkan sentimen aku nih..Tapi apa yang aku nak lihat ialah keadaan selepas pilihanraya [...]
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