Negara Bangkrap Jika Harga Minyak Diturunkan?

Salah satu komen yang agak menarik oleh pengunjung blog Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim...

NEGARA BANGKRAP JIKA HARGA MINYAK DITURUNKAN?

Terdapat pihak yang mengatakan bahawa adalah mustahil untuk menurunkan harga minyak kerana harga minyak sedang meningkat naik di peringkat global. Timbalan Perdana Menteri menyatakan negara akan bangkrap jika harga minyak diturunkan….

Untuk kenyataan seperti ini kita patut tanyakan terlebih dahulu. Adakah kerajaan sebenarnya tidak mampu menanggung subsidi?

Berdasarkan laporan Belanjawan 2006 mukasurat 10 dan 15,jumlah kutipan kerajaan drpd Petronas adalah RM39.924billion.Jika ditolak subsidi yang ketika itu berjumlah RM 12billion,maka lebihan hasil kerajaan daripada Petronas adalah RM27.924b.Ini adalah kenaikan dana RM12.82billion berbanding tahun 2005.Harus diingat,anggaran ini dibuat akhir tahun 2005 sebelum subsidi minyak dikurangkan pada Feb 2006 sebanyak RM4billion dan keuntungan Petronas mencecah RM76billion.Jadi pertambahan dana tersebut pasti lebih tinggi.

Pernah sekali dipersoalkan ke mana RM500billion duit keuntungan Petronas hilang.Buat pengetahuan semua Audit Petronas tidak perlu dibentangkan di Parlimen dan Petronas hanya bertanggungjawab pada PM.Audit Petronas tidak pernah dibentangkan secara rasmi.Ini menyebabkan Petronas menduduki tangga tercorot daripada 15 syarikat minyak dan gas dunia dalam satu kajian ‘World’s Most sustainable And Ethical Companies’.Kajian ini dijalankan oleh Management and Excellant,syarikat perunding gas dan minyak di Sepanyol.Dalam kajian itu,Petronas mendapat 20.15% berbanding Shell 89.01%.

Sekitar 1986,terdapat satu Tabung dipanggil Tabung Warisan Petronas.Tujuan tabung ini adalah bagi membantu kerajaan sekiranya kita menjadi pengimport minyak satu hari nanti.Setiap tahun,sebahagian keuntungan Petronas akan dimasukkan ke dalam tabung ini.Soalnya,berapakah jumlah kutipan tabung ini sekarang dan mengapa ianya tidak pernah didedahkan?

Minyak Malaysia antara yang paling berkualiti di dunia.Harga setong minyak Malaysia adalah 1-2 dolar lebih tinggi dr harga pasaran dunia.Contoh,katalah harga minyak dunia sekarang USD100 setong.Tapi harga minyak Malaysia yang dijual ke luar negara adalah USD102 setong.Lebihan 2 dollar setong ini sudah menghasilkan keuntungan USD438j @ RM1.49billion setahun.

Minyak yang diimport masuk ke Malaysia sebenarnya minyak bermutu rendah.Dengan kata lain,kita ada minyak mahal pegi jual.Lepas tu bagi kat rakyat minyak tak elok.Kitaran penjualan ini menyebabkan peredaran wang USD yang sangat besar.ini menyebabkan jika sedikit masalah berlaku pada matawang US,kita terjejas sama.

Semoleknya,minyak digunakan ke dalam negara dan lebihannya barulah dieksport.Penggunaan NGV sbg bahan bakar mesti dipertingkatkan bagi mengelakkan tumbuh guna petrol yang terlalu besar dalam negara.Dengan cara itu,minyak kita tidak akan bergantung pada harga ekonomi dunia lagi.Sementelah lagi,PM pernah menyatakan bahawa penggunaan minyak di Malaysia hanyalah 575000 tong sehari,kurang daripada pengeluaran minyak Malaysia sebanyak 650 000 sehari.Taktik ini dipraktikkan di Arab Saudi.Sebab itu,walaupun harga minyak dunia naik,Arab Saudi mampu turunkan harga minyak tempatan.0.35 riyal satu liter.

Kalau kita tengok Qatar,Qatar harga minyaknya RM0.87 seliter @ 80 dirham.Qatar macam kita,pengeksport minyak.Dan kalau kita check Singapura,harga minyaknya RM4.15.Di Indonesia pada 2006,harga minyaknya berada pada paras 4500 rupiah.Ini bersamaan RM1.84.Sila ambil perhatian:Indonesia adalah pengimport minyak.Keluaran minyaknya tidak mencukupi utk menampung keperluan dalam negara.Malaysia pengeksport minyak.Keluaran minyaknya melebihi keperluan tempatan.

Di Indonesia Sudahlah harga petrolnya lebih murah,keretanya pula murah.Toyota Avanza di sana harganya RM40 000.Di sini harganya kira2 RM70000.

Sebagai perbandingan,harga LPG di Malaysia adalah RM1.75 satu kg.Di Thailand RM1.65 satu kg.(Anda boleh rujuk kenyataan media JPM pada 27 Feb 2006).Untuk rekod,Thailand bukan pengeksport LPG.Kita?LPG belambak kat Sarawak nun.

Penipuan yang kerajaan buat tentang hal kenaikan amat jelas.Kerajaan kata subsidi kena hapus perlahan-lahan sebab nanti tak lama lagi rizab minyak akan habis.Jadi rakyat kena berlatih hidup tanpa subsidi.Tapi berdasarkan jawapan bertulis Perdana Menteri di Dewan Rakyat November 2005,rizab minyak negara adalah 5.29billion tong yang boleh kekal sehingga 2024.Ini belum termasuk penemuan telaga baru seperti telaga Pisagan 1A dan rizab gas lainnya terutama di laut Sabah.Bohong tak bohong.

Ingat,jangkaan habis petrol pada 2024 ini dibuat mengambil kira rizab pada tahun 2005 sahaja dan pengeluaran sehari secara purata 750 000 tong.Untuk rekod,pengeluaran sekarang adalah 650 000 tong.

Dan jika diikutkan,kenaikan harga minyak mentah dunia sebenarnya memberikan rahmat besar buat Malaysia.Menurut laporan Asian Development Bank,dalam buku laporan tahun 2007 menyatakan bahawa setiap kenaikan sebanyak USD1 bagi pasaran dunia untuk minyak mentah,kerajaan Malaysia mendapat keuntungan tambahan USD 62juta bersamaan RM210.8 juta.Pada saat minyak kali terakhir dinaikkan RM0.30 satu liter Awal 2006,harga minyak mentah dunia adalah USD70 setong.Kini harganya kira-kira USD96 setong.Bermakna penambahan keuntungan buat kerajaan Malaysia sebanyak USD 1.612 bilion.

Sekarang ayuh kita fikirkan pula mengapa subsidi diturunkan dan keuntungan kerajaan meningkat,masalah kewangan tetap berlaku.Dikatakan duit penjimatan RM4.4billion itu pergi kepada pengangkutan awam.Pergi kpd pengangkutan awam atau pergi pada siapa? Anda kenal Scomi?Scomi Group Berhad adalah milik Kamaluddin bin Abdullah bin Ahmad Badawi.Berdasarkan The Star Online Bizweek 18 Mac 2006,Scomi telah memasuki tawaran untuk Syarikat Prasarana Negara (PNSB) sebanyak RM120 juta bagi membina 400 badan bas dan kontrak RM50j utk pembaikan 1500 gerabak dan landasan KTM.

Ini yang keluar suratkhabar.Yang tak keluar?Skandal PKFZ tu macammana?

Sekarang tuan-tuan nampak duit jimat subsidi itu pergi mana?

Pembailoutan syarikat2 individu seperti MISC dan Scomi milik anak PM dengan jumlah mencecah RM4billion selain pembinaan projek2 mega yang tidak menguntungkan adalah antara punca utama kelemahan kewangan kerajaan.Pemberian subsidi bahan api berjumlah RM14billion pula terlalu banyak menguntungkan Penjana Tenaga Bebas(IPP) seprti YTL,Genting Sanyen dan Powertec milik Ananda Krishnan,Lim Goh Tong dan Yeoh Tiong Lai.Syarikat-syarikat IPP ini pula telah menandatangani perjanjian berat sebelah dengan TNB yang menghasilkan kerugian sejumlah RM30b kepada TNB…(Tan Sri Ani Arope telah mengesahkan ini….)

Najib kata berjimatlah.Dia duk baiki umah rasmi dia RM5juta.Projek tu dapat kat adik dia tanpa kelulusan JKR.Berjimat apebendanya?

Kata-kata Najib baru-baru ini amat mengelirukan.Negara akan bangkrap jika minyak diturunkan harga.Negara tidak akan bangkrap Najib.Yang bankrap mungkin beliau.

Kesimpulannya,ketelusan,kebijaksanaan menandatangani perjanjian,tadbir urus wang yang baik serta dasar ‘tidak pada bail out’ dan pembatalan projek mega yang bodoh akan membolehkan harga minyak diturunkan. Nah…. sekarang rakyat yang terpaksa menanggung semua ketidaktelusan mengurus tabdir wang negara… RAKYAT MENJADI MANGSA… SEMUA HARGA BARANG NAIKKKKK…….

Power to the people!

Kejutan Buat Barisan Nasional Di Pilihanraya 2008

Aku mengikuti politik tanahair..Disebabkan aku ini mempunyai akses kepada media alternatif, maka aku lebih condong ke arah pembangkang selepas melihat apa yang berlaku sejak Tun Dr Mahathir meletak jawatan..Aku suka kepada analisis To Opposition parties: follow this poll by Little Bird ini yang aku dapat drp Malaysia-Today

Malaysia Today is hosting a running poll called 'Mock Elections'. Everyone, including supporters of the BN and the Opposition, should visit the poll and cast their votes. The system does not allow for two votes to be cast on the same day. So for those BN supporters who want to vote twice or three times a day, you either need a lot of machines or you have to keep coming back every other day.

As of now 5:55 pm, Saturday February 16, there have been a total of 5,043 votes cast. Of this number, 4,718 votes or 93.6% are for the Opposition while 325 or 6.4% are for the BN. I have been checking over the past two days. The proportion of votes is almost constant. The BN only gets 6.4% of the vote.

Granted that many of the visitors to MT are Opposition supporters but nevertheless 93.6% of all votes cast thus far in this Mock Elections are for the Opposition. What does this mean? It means that the vast majority of the educated, net-savvy citizens of the country are not for the BN this time around.

For example, I am a many times voter, member of UMNO and ex-Government man. This time around, for the first time, I will be voting for the Opposition. Do read on. As for the Mock Election being run here, since MT's readership encompasses all races and religions, it means that the BN is past its usefulness.

The BN can only count on the kampong folks, the small town dwellers and the poorly educated to give them their seats. This is why despite Khairy Jamaludin the S-I-L being a graduate of Oxford University he has to stand for elections in some backwater rural ditch in Negeri Sembilan or in a very very safe seat like Putrajaya with its 5,000 Gomen servant voters.

Despite Oxford, Khairy cannot stand in the urban constituencies with well-educated voters. Khairy needs voters like Cik Jah, Kobat and Lebai Omak to vote for him. Simple folks whose knowledge of things does not go beyond Datuk K, Siti Nurhaliza and 'Kisah diraba Tok Kun' - and not necessarily in that order.

Well, yesterday, I had another pow-wow with a high-ranking Gomen servant. He too will be voting for the Opposition this time. The following are some very pertinent information which has been gathered by the Gomen to size up their chances at this 12th General Elections. Opposition please take note. We still have 20 long days before we vote on the 8th of March.

Despite retaining the 2/3 majority, the General Elections in 1999 were considered a heavy loss for the BN. A post-mortem showed major erosion in support for the BN among six major groups of Malays :- i. the professionals, ii. youths, iii. Civil Servants (teachers, TNB & Telekom workers etc), iv. the agama people, v. students (who make up 'pengundi luar' who travel back to vote) and lastly, vi. the women.

In 1999, the non-Malays, particularly the Chinese, gave solid support for the BN. If not for Chinese voters in Bangsar and the surrounding areas, people like Shahrizat Jalil would actually have lost Lembah Pantai in KL. In the aftermath of the Anwar Ibrahim black-eye and the murderous anti-Chinese riots in Indonesia at that time, the Chinese were frightened into supporting the BN.

In 2004 there was a complete turnaround. This was the 'high hopes for Abdullah Badawi' factor. In 2004, with sound propaganda and careful handling (we were all deeply involved, we were the best), the BN managed to salvage strong support from almost all sectors. But the single biggest factor was the promise of positive change by Abdullah Badawi. What a chicken shit let down that has become.

Now the Gomen's reading for this 12th General Elections in 2008 has changed dramatically. Gomen surveys show that the professional groups (across all races) and the youths (all races including large numbers of Malay youths) are very unhappy with the Gomen. It is expected that, this time around, many of them will be voting for the Opposition for the first time.

The other group that has become very unhappy with Abdullah Badawi are the Civil Servants. This is a very large number, considering that there are almost 1 million Civil Servants, over 97% of whom are voting age Malays. It is projected that many voters in these categories will not be voting for the BN. There is more to this. There is a difference between 'voting for the Opposition' and 'not voting for the BN'.

There are three more important groups of voters who will not be voting for the BN. The non-Malays, particularly the Chinese and Indians, will be voting for the Opposition this time around. It is most likely that they will go to the polling booths and cast their votes for the Opposition. What is interesting is that the Chinese and Indians are predicted to vote for any Opposition candidate in their area, i.e. notwithstanding PAS, DAP, PKR, etc. They will vote and they will vote Opposition. They will not be staying at home on Polling Day.

Then there is a new group, very large and very influential. This is the pro-Dr Mahathir group. This group is very largely Malay (middle-aged, older-aged, private sector, Melayu korporat, ex-Civil Servants, etc.) and has great nostalgia for Dr Mahathir. They are well-versed with the total ineptitude of Abdullah Badawi. They also do not like the way Dr Mahathir has been ill-treated by Abdullah Badawi including the ongoing VK Lingam Inquiry which they see as trying to embarrass Dr Mahathir.

(Folks we are not debating their merits here but only looking at potential voting behaviour. So don't kill the messenger, please read what was told to me).

This pro-Dr Mahathir group may do two things. They may vote for the Opposition, provided the Opposition candidate is someone they like. Because of race and religion factors they may prefer PAS rather than DAP or PKR. Failing an acceptable Opposition candidate, they may just spoil the BN vote - as a sign of protest. Lastly, they may not go out to vote.

Take note: The chances of them spoiling their votes for BN or not going out to vote at all are greater than their chances of voting for the Opposition on Election Day. This means they are protest voters. It is not that they love the Opposition but they just don't like Badawi.

The BN can forget about winning them over. It is too late now for the BN. The Opposition must work hard to convince this class of voters to vote for them. It is really quite easy. No need for hugs and kisses but conciliatory statements by Opposition leaders towards Dr Mahathir may just do the trick. The idea is to win these people over. Anwar Ibrahim, Ronnie Liu and PAS please take note.

The third and last group is very interesting. These are the Government retirees and pensioners. There are hundreds of thousands of them. They are mostly Malay and very staunchly pro-Dr Mahathir and retired during the time of Dr Mahathir. These are again mostly Malay voters who feel proud that they were Civil Servants under Tun Dr Mahathir. They too will not be voting for the BN.

One retiree has said that he will not vote for the BN. If he cannot vote for PAS or another Malay opposition candidate, he will either spoil his vote or he will not vote at all.

Compared to 1999, this GE in 2008 will see major erosion in support for the BN but for different reasons and by different groups. This time around, the Chinese, the Indians, the Malay professionals, the Malay pro-Dr Mahathir group, the serving Malay Civil Servants, the retired Malay Civil Servants, the students and youths, are all showing dislike for the BN.

There are still 20 days left. The Opposition must focus their efforts very well. Be nice to Cik Jah and Lebai Omak too but they will be voting for Khairy Jamaludin in Rembau. We cant change that overnight.

Anda setuju?...